Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.